My Analysis of the Current Politics in Iran

Bahar Bastani, M.D.

I recently traveled to Iran to attend meetings and visit family and friends.  I observed a number of political and social changes since my last visit.  I noticed that the country is being increasingly taken over by a government, which is controlled by the revolutionary army and the national security service (Sepah and Etelaati).  Mr. Ahmadinejad, along with several of his ministers, most of his ministers’ deputies, many state deputies, and most of the cities’ and states’ governors have very strong ties with the revolutionary army and the national security service.  Many of the achievements of the past president, Mr. Khatami, are now being reversed, i.e., more newspapers are being closed or streamlined, even those with very close ties to the top inner circle, such as Sharg, which belonged to the Kargozaran/Mr. Hashemi Rafsangani political party.  The cinema and theater industry, which had flourished during the presidency of Mr. Khatami, is now under attack for promoting “corrupt art.”  University departments, especially in the humanities, are being purged of liberals and progressives, by early retirements or terminations, and the positions are being replaced with new revolutionary army graduates from the “Imam Hussain University.” 

A new culture of total obedience and mediocrity, with no tolerance for any opposition, even from the loyalists, is being established.  The institution of “Planning and Budgets,” (Sazman Barnameh and Boodjeh) is gradually being dissolved into the state governors’ offices (Ostandaries).  This reminds me of the early years of the revolution, when “revolutionary acts,” with little accountability, prevailed.  The institution of “Planning and Budgets” would have demanded accountability for expenditures, and thus, had to be terminated.

The internal policies seem to be much influenced by foreign policies, which are based on populist appeals to the Muslim world, and the radicals inside the country.  This is at the expense of a near total stagnation of industry, which is currently well compensated by lucrative oil income.  The majority of government contracts are granted preferentially to the revolutionary army, depriving the independent contractors of all lucrative contracts.  The near monopoly of the military oriented government on the economy and industry has stagnated all economic and industrial growth, and has markedly increased the inflation rate. 

Even the traditionalists are quite worried about the tightening controls by the government on all aspects of society.  When Mr. Ahmadinejad visits the holy city of Quom, only two ayatollahs, i.e., Mr. Mesbahe Yazdi and Mr. Nouri (the militant theologians), receive him, and the main body of the “association of religious scholars” (Jaamee Moddaressin Quom) has so far refused to meet with him.

Mr. Ahmadinejad’s election was based on his appeal to the lower social economic class of Iran, with promises of economic and social justice.  However, because of his mediocre government team and poorly advised policies, the economy of the country is worsening.  This will lead to a widening gap between the poor and the rich, and ultimately failure of his promises to improve the livelihood of the economically deprived class of citizens will lead to a general dissatisfaction and disillusionment of those who initially supported his presidency.  His recent comments in opposition to family planning, and his opposition to sending students and faculty to the west to further their education, claiming that interactions with the west would bring corruption to the minds of the young, further demonstrate his closed mindedness and his radical right wing character.

I consider Mr. Ahmadinejad’s government and its policies a total setback to Iran’s intellectual movement, which had gained some momentum in the early part of Mr. Khatami’s presidency.  However, this semi-democracy, is still better than the autocratic and totalitarian governments in its neighborhood.  This setback could hopefully be a learning experience for the citizens of Iran.  As you recall, after the first experience of a semi democratic voting, in the beginning of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the vast majority of the parliamentary seats were occupied by mullahs, a trend that has progressively reversed with time.  The current government of Iran is comprised of “the noisemakers and irritants” who constantly disrupted any progressive moves of the past governments, and were probably involved in the chain assassinations (Ghatlhaye Zanjeerehi) of the dissidents and intellectuals, as well as disrupting any peace movements with other governments, both locally and internationally.  It seems to me that the progressive parties in Iran have chosen a wait-and-see/noninterference policy to allow a full exposé of the incompetencies of this “irritant and noisemaking group,” who has now acquired the leading role in the government.

I find many similarities between Mr. Ahmadinejad and Mr. Bush, as both are populists, self-righteous, dogmatic in their views, serve and promote a right wing radical religious base, believe in a simple black and white truth, have a mission to support the “righteousness” and fight evil in a world torn between evil and God, both look silly and make stupid comments, and both promote militarism and radicalism.  I consider both of them to be quite dangerous for our world.

This is my honest analysis and understanding of the current politics in Iran.  I do understand that I may be wrong, in part, or in all of my analysis.  I have no intention to offend anyone’s political views.  I have simply presented my views, in the spirit of promoting a better understanding of the current situation.