21st American century is about to end

By Abid Mustafa

Barely six years have elapsed since President Bush took office and the much
coveted 21st century belongs to America is about to come to an abrupt end.
America’s pre-eminence in four corners of the world is being challenged by
friends and foes alike.

In America’s own backyard— Latin America—Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is
spear heading a crusade to undermine US interests across the region. He has
successfully garnered the support of the leaders of Cuba, Bolivia and
Ecuador to propagate his cause.  Together they have challenged American
supremacy by embarking on a campaign to reclaim oil and gas fields from
western companies and put them directly under state control.

Across the Atlantic, Europe smitten by the Iraq war and deeply hostile to
the unilateralist agenda of the Bush administration, has at best offered
nominal assistance. Rather, given the opportunity the Europeans—notably the
French, the Germans and the British have behaved more as foes than American
allies.  French intransigence in Lebanon, Europe’s refusal to commit
significant troops to Iraq and Afghanistan, Britain’s interference in
Palestine, and French and British hostility towards a Darfur settlement have
damaged America’s standing in the world and eroded her legitimacy.

Russia and China subdued by twenty or so years of American power have
reawakened to counter American inspired revolutions sweeping Central Asia.
Uzbekistan returned to Moscow’s sphere of influence, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus
successfully thwarted US backed uprisings; America failed to press home the
political gains made in Ukraine, and Georgia witnessed a severe backlash
from Russia over its ties with Washington.

Furthermore, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan the minnow states of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation (SCO) have become emboldened enough to demand
withdrawal of American bases. America’s gains in this region almost stand to
naught.

Worse still is that the war on terror has inadvertently solidified China’s
relationship with Russia—undoing years of American strategic planning to
keep the two erstwhile enemies apart. The China-Russian alliance
reinvigorated with economic growth and a common desire to see a bipolar
world has spread its tentacles across the globe harming US interests.

Russia unfazed by American threats is equipping Venezuela and Iran with
modern weaponry. Chinese energy companies are signing oil deals in places
that have traditionally been the preserve of American oil giants. In the
Middle East, both Russian and China have taken strong objection to America’s
position over Iran. On the Korean peninsula, Beijing’s unfettered support
for Pyongyang has exposed Washington’s inability to prevent North Korea from
becoming nuclear.

Throughout the Muslim world America’s credibility has plummeted to an
all-time low. The ferocity of the resistance in Iraq and Afghanistan has
broken the back of the US army and forced President Bush to abandon his
plans to advance democracy. Bush unable to extricate America from Iraq and
Afghanistan has had to revert to the ‘Truman Doctrine’ and seek the help of
secular autocracies like Syria, Iran and Pakistan. Instead of reshaping the
Muslim world in America’s image, the nefarious policies of the Bush
administration has Islamised the region, politicised the Muslim masses to
awaken from their spiritual slumber and galvanised the Muslim intelligentsia
into a powerful force for political Islam— to sum up the last six years— it
is suffice to say that America is precipitating the birth of the Caliphate.

After two decades of dominating world affairs, America finds itself at the
mercy of her friends and enemies. Graham Fuller former vice chairman of the
National Intelligence Council described America’s predicament correctly when
he wrote in the latest issue of the National Interest, “diverse countries
have deployed a multiplicity of strategies and tactics designed to weaken,
divert, alter, complicate, limit delay or block the Bush agenda through
death by a thousand cuts.”

So what happens after America has fallen from its perch as the world’s sole
super power? Europe is too divided to take up the mantle of the leading
state. Russia has yet to translate her economic strength into political
capital to position herself as the pre-eminent power. Both China and India
lack the political will and the experience to affect world politics. For the
foreseeable future, both countries will be confined to their respective
spheres of influence.

The country that wishes to supplant America must possess a huge population,
abundant resources, a universal ideology and the political will to succeed.
The most obvious candidate is the Muslim world under the Caliphate, which
Bush has often spoken about.

December 3 2006

Abid Mustafa is a political commentator who specialises in Muslim affairs