Generic Regime Change:  More Straws in the Wind?

by Dr. Robert D. Crane


  In crises, it is always tempting to “grasp at straws.”  Straws from various directions are blowing all over the place now that a fresh wind is sweeping through Washington as a result of the 2006 mid-term elections. 

  One such straw is the article, entitled “Hamas Wing Urges Attacks on American Targets,” from today’s feed.  This departure from past Hamas policy is in direct response to the Israeli massacres in Bait Hanoun last weekend, which, in turn, were an expected response to whoever among the Palestinians is lobbing rockets into Israel. 

  Six inferences are justified from this new development.  First, such radicalization is to be expected.  This new development represents a radical departure from mainline Hamas policy.  Hamas has never in its history advocated attacking anything American.  Limiting actions to resistance against Israeli occupation has been a bedrock principle, to which Hamas has adhered with amazing consistency.  Any departure from this foundational principle would indicate that some of the Palestinians are becoming more radicalized than ever before, which, of course, given the circumstances, is not surprising.

  Second, the reference is not to Hamas in Palestine but to Hamas’ Wing in Syria.  The American and Israeli media have always tried to lump Hamas into a monolithic enemy. This innovative nuancing might suggest a little more sophistication than in the past.

  Third, the American election may give an opportunity for the leaders of Hamas, both the “wing” in Palestine and the “wing” in exile abroad, to drop their reactive mode of operations and agree to beat Israel to the punch in advocating a principled truce known as hudna.

  Fourth, such a unity government, including both “wings” and the tail (known as Abu Mazen’s Al Fatah) might not only fly but leave behind and marginalize the radicals who cannot see beyond the ends of their own noses. 

  Fifth, this, in turn, might further marginalize the still powerful radicals in the American White House, who, after the rout of the Republicans in yesterday’s elections, will have to trim their sails in order not to founder on the rocks of their own arrogance. 

  Finally, we have the phenomenon of regime change, not the kind the NeoCons have had in mind.  Americans like to think of themselves as a model for the world.  Now others may be encouraged to copy our model of at least partial regime change in order to introduce principle into policy and pursue justice as the only path to peace.